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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest competition is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime also-rans ascending together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun year, he's facing multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the projected ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a normal year!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still